1	Critical Thinking and the Future What is Critical Thinking? Why is it increasingly important for ourselves as individuals and as a society?
2	What is Critical Thinking? Independent Thought Free will of individuals Independent of royalty, clergy, tradition, totalitarianism & Scientific Principles Scientific Method Evidence, Hypothesis, Testing Reason and Logic Deduction and Induction Not incompatible with spiritual beliefs
3	Why is Critical Thinking so important? Important at both the global and personal levels The rise of independent thinking is a drastic change in human history It has an incredible positive potential, if we take advantage of it More critical thinking and knowledge is required just to function as individuals in our society “It is not so much that the Organization is going to push the individual around any more than it used to. It is that it is becoming increasingly hard for the individual to figure out when he is being pushed around.” – William H. Whyte, Jr.
4	Based on Two Bahá'í Concepts: 1) An Ever-Advancing Civilization 2) The Independent Investigation of Truth Bahá’ís also believe in: One God Unity of the World’s Major Religions Equality of Women & Men Unity in Diversity Establishment of World Peace
5	An Ever-Advancing Civilization Hegel Early 19th-century philosopher Hegel wrote obscure, difficult work that heavily influenced the world, mainly through Marx. Hegel believed that humanity progresses toward freedom, and that history is a linear path towards a perfect society. Unfortunately, he also believed that this path culminated in him. Little did Hegel suspect that for 1300 years Islam already held a view of history moving towards a perfect society, ordered by God through His Prophets. Bahá’ís build on this Islamic worldview. Conclusions: Bahá’ís believe that world peace is inevitable, but it is up to humanity to dictate how and when it is implemented Science and Independent Thinking are essential tools to help the world reach peace sooner Humanity has finally evolved enough to use freedom wisely, and must now develop its new capabilities
6	The Global level: Why is this happening now? 1) Economic Reasons Postindustrial Economy – Service & Information Shift from physical labor to mental labor 2) Educational Reasons Rising literacy rate throughout world Continuing education throughout life; increase in life expectancy As more information is stored, knowledge builds on itself 3) Technological Reasons Original mass media allowed a few to reach the masses New technologies allow everyone to communicate to everyone 4) Religious Reasons ... 5) Political Reasons ...
7	Religion & Philosophy Free Will is a key concept in nearly all of the world’s belief systems Absolute freedom is necessary to make completely moral choices The “jurisdiction” of religion shrinks as science disproves religious beliefs Hungry for spiritual fulfillment, people cling to spurious Pseudosciences and New Age fads
8	Democracy What is “Strong Democracy?” Complete Equality Direct Democracy: Referenda Multiple Parties Proportional Representation
9	Simultaneous Disintegration & Integration
10	The Personal level: How are we deceived? Disinformation vs. Misinformation 1) Propaganda 2) Marketing 3) Pseudoscience 4) Media Bias 5) Self-Delusion
11	Propaganda Is propaganda even necessary? Or will citizens censor themselves? The most effective political manipulations are not direct lies, but distractions and the polarization and oversimplification of issues Totalitarian governments do exist, but the biggest danger in democratic societies is apathy “The road to tyranny, we must never forget, begins with the destruction of the truth.” - Bill Clinton, 1995
12	Marketing Lying with Words AOL Cancellation Policy “You will not be charged your first monthly fee unless you don’t cancel within the first 30 days.” Lying with Images Spring Water Scenes Over 25% of bottled water is tap water Products digitally inserted on TV shows Lying with Numbers University of South Florida, 1995: Raised average SAT scores by not counting bottom 6% of students
13	Marketing: Trust Us, We’re Experts! Third-Party Tactic Examples Mothers Opposing Pollution (MOP) Campaign against plastic milk bottles, 1993 Asbestos Found to be dangerous as early as 1918 By 1960, 52 papers found it harmful, 11 found it benign David Manning, June 2001 Found by Newsweek to be a fake reviewer created by Columbia Pictures’ marketing department to endorse such gems as “The Animal” and “A Knight’s Tale” VNRs & Press Releases Nearly 40% of newspaper content starts as company press releases Video News Releases: Filmed by PR firms and aired unedited as news
14	Pseudoscience Unfalsifiable beliefs that use the trappings of science to appear scientific Holes are rationalized away e.g. 71% of Americans believe the government is covering up evidence of alien spacecraft Crop Circles & Bigfoot Tampered Halloween Candy Subliminal Advertising The Bible Code
15	Pseudoscience No convincing evidence for: Atlantis Astrology Crystal power Channeling Dowsing Alchemy Bigfoot Loch Ness monster Some evidence supports: Lie Detectors Hypnosis
16	Junk Journalism: Three causes Ideology & Bias International issues are often treated “conservatively,” nationalistically Local issues are often “liberal,” anti-corporation, pro-environment Ignorance: Self-Delusion & Mistakes 1) Prior “template” of story 2) Not trained in subject 3) Insignificant/unreliable reports overemphasized 4) Statistics taken out of context Robert J. Samuelson: “Psycho-facts” Beware of terrorism ... and sharks! Above all, Sensationalism
17	Self-Delusion Fate vs. Coincidence Running into someone familiar Chance & Gambling Streaks and lucky hands have been disproved “Seven Sins of Memory” Daniel L. Schacter: Transience, absentmindedness, blocking, misattribution, suggestibility, bias, and persistence “Therefore, it is evident that the method of reason is not perfect ... For if it were perfect, all ought to be united in their ideas and agreed in their opinions.” - ‘Abdu’l-Baha, Some Answered Questions
18	Avoid Three Extremes
19	Organizing Information Applying Critical Thinking depends on organizing our knowledge so we are not overwhelmed The Universal Library: Amazon’s “Search Inside the Book” The Library at Alexandria – rebuilt:
20	Tools for Critical Thinking Occam’s Razor All else being equal, the simplest solution tends to be true Burden of Proof A good example: Evolution Sagan’s Balance Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof Science: Induction Drawing conclusions based on high probability, rather than certainty
21	Conclusion Increased Individual Rights & Knowledge Give us Increased Responsibility to: Participate in Democracy Spread information wisely Be responsible consumers Follow ideals of tolerance and justice Educate ourselves continuously Use alternatives to terrorism and violence Explore critical thinking on our own ...